zigguratbuilder ([info]zigguratbuilder) wrote,
@ 2009-06-18 16:34:00
Previous Entry  Add to memories!  Tell a Friend  Next Entry
Iran vs Real Threats
These are very interesting times.

What's happening in Iran is totally interesting. It's either the cracks in the wall of the establishment, or else the birth pains of a genuine democracy being born (just one that, in Round One, a little less than half the people are unhappy with: So yeah, like America these last three elections, just with more rioting). It'll be interesting to see how things shake out, and hopefully the UN and the US can offer some pillars of support as the fires burn.

But I'm much more interested in what's going on in North Korea.

War is a horrible state of affairs, but these days it seems an inevitability with North Korea.

Everyone's basically just waiting for North Korea to make the one move that is so ridiculously retarded that China would simply look the other way while someone spanked them. Like firing nukes at the US or Japan. Watching China and Russia's reaction, it looks like they're slowly backing away from the blustering tantrum child these days.

The regime looks to be more and more out of control, so it may only be a matter of time before someone on the inner council decides that it's time to go out in a blaze of glory. Whether it's the US that makes the move, or Japan, it's gonna get messy.
Well, Japan cannot move until the Koreans outright attack them, but again with the whole, "Good morning! We fired live missiles over your island last night to test our guidance system, but no harm, cause we missed. Tee hee" shit that's been going on for the last ten years, plus now nuclear testing, again it'll just take one bombing, one ship sinking to set off a powder keg.

Aaanyway, North Korea's been on my mind recently. Been also watching a lot of international documentaries about the state of that dictatorship these days as well, crazy shit.

But yeah, interesting times.

-Andy



(8 comments) - (Post a new comment)


[info]gillan
2009-06-18 10:02 pm UTC (link)
I KNOW.

I think the worst thing about Iraq is that it left us well-fucked to do anything about North Korea should we need to. Hey, I'm a big fucking hippie liberal socialist but OH MY GOD NORTH KOREA.

Can we hope that Kim Jong Il's successor will be maybe sane?

(Reply to this)


[info]benlehman
2009-06-18 11:35 pm UTC (link)
Everyone's basically just waiting for North Korea to make the one move that is so ridiculously retarded that China would simply look the other way while someone spanked them

What?

Why does everyone into Japan seem to get the China-North Korea relationship so ridiculously backwards?

China. Does. Not. Like. North. Korea. End of story. Details follow.

China's relationship with North Korea is not the same as it was during the Korean war. They supported North Korea because they thought it was going to become a communist state. It didn't. So the Maoists were pretty damn upset with North Korea to start with. Since then, China has had a massive revolution (the 1979 reforms) and is run by a group of people basically anti-thetical to the pre-1979 system of government. This makes North Korea hate them even more (traitors to "communism"), and likewise makes China hate North Korea even more (insane fuckheads who share our borders and give us all their social problems).

North Korea is a semi-nuclearized unstable autocracy run by a probably insane person that shares a land border with China. The Chinese are pretty clear on this, and they're not happy about it (not that anyone *would* be happy about it). Not to mention that North Korea is a huge source of illegal immigrants, refugees, and other social problems that China really can't afford to deal with, which the North Korean government refuses to cooperate with China in dealing with.

I mean, yes. China support North Korea in the 50s and 60s. You know who primarily supported North Korea after that? Japan! That was a long time ago. Attitudes change.

Now, the one thing that China would like less than the present state is a US-puppet state on their border. Understandably, given that we're really aggressive towards China. So they are naturally against an invasion by US-backed powers (S Korea and Japan) and want to make sure that, when the regime falls, they get their piece of the pie and can expand their sphere of influence a little. Personally I think that China worries to much about this: they're going to dominate the region economically regardless of the ideological bent of any hypothetical unified Korea. But I don't blame them for being anxious about it.

(Reply to this) (Thread)


[info]benlehman
2009-06-18 11:36 pm UTC (link)
I don't think that the risk of a "blaze of glory" end to N. Korea is as high as you think it is, though. The leader may be insane, but I don't think that the heads of the military would hesitate to use the opportunity of an existential crisis to put a bullet in his head and claim authority.

yrs--
--Ben

(Reply to this) (Parent)


[info]judith_s
2009-06-20 07:11 am UTC (link)
Sorry, drive-by commenter (via jhkim).

The reason everyone things it's China is because China supplies a huge percentage of N.Korea's imports and is by far its largest trading partner. Not to mention the only one who voted against sanctions numerous times in the past. http://www.cfr.org/publication/11097/chinanorth_korea_relationship.html

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)


[info]jhkim
2009-06-20 08:34 pm UTC (link)
In a Japan Times article, Audrey McAvoy states that Japan is North Korea's biggest trading partner, noting: North Korea shipped $ 225.62 million worth of goods to Japan in 2001, according to figures compiled by the Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency in South Korea. Its next biggest markets were South Korea, which imported $176.17 million, and China, $166.73 million.

This doesn't directly contradict the Jayshree Bajoria article that you cite, which states "Pyongyang is economically dependent on China, which provides most of its food and energy supplies." However, they disagree markedly on their spin. I'm suspicious of Bajoria's article because its second paragraph states, "Since the Korean War divided the peninsula between the North and South, China has lent political and economic backing to North Korea's leaders: Kim Il Sung and his son and successor, Kim Jong-Il." That's plainly wrong. The Korean War did not divide the peninsula into North and South -- that was done years prior to the war.

(Reply to this) (Parent)


[info]jhkim
2009-06-19 04:30 pm UTC (link)
So, I'm no fan of North Korea. It is indeed a totalitarian regime. However, both Japan and South Korea have had active space programs funded by the Americans for decades. They have launched plenty of satellites -- and also have had many failures. Yet somehow South Korean rocket development is considered normal and acceptable, yet North Korean rocket development is insane, child-like, blustering provocation.

(Reply to this)


[info]gobi
2009-06-19 09:53 pm UTC (link)
Did you hear about Anonymous and Pirate Bay teaming up to provide info to the Iranian protesters? http://iran.whyweprotest.net/

(Reply to this)


(Anonymous)
2009-07-01 09:36 am UTC (link)
actually, the very SMARTEST thing, the most WORLD UNBALANCING, "BEHOLD!!!!" move that china could make is this:

CONQUER NORTH KOREA!

can you IMAGINE?!

china's prestige just jumps off the scale, becomes a "hero" figure and totally PULLS THE RUG OUT from under america and south korea.

i mean, what can they say? south korea probably has the biggest beef in that they lose a piece of their territory probably forever (again, that would be a pretty ballsy gimme for china) and while america might have misgivings... ultimately, china wiped out an unbalanced, psychopathic regime and it's not like china is looking for a fight with america or south korea or japan.

in a time where geopolitical borders are necessarily pretty stable, this would be a snatch that's almost un-condemnable!

jin

(Reply to this)


(8 comments) - (Post a new comment)

Create an Account
Forgot your login or password?
Login w/ OpenID
English • Español • Deutsch • Русский…